By George Friedman

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said May 30 that Israel could not prevent the United Nations from recognizing a Palestinian state, in the sense of adopting a resolution on the subject. Two weeks ago, U.S. President Barack Obama, in a speech, called on Israel to return to some variation of its pre-1967 borders. The practical significance of these and other diplomatic evolutions in relation to Israel is questionable. Historically, U.N. declarations have had variable meanings, depending on thewillingness of great powers to enforce them. Obama's speech on Israel, and his subsequent statements, created enough ambiguity to make exactly what he was saying unclear. Nevertheless, it is clear that the diplomatic atmosphere on Israel is shifting.

There are many questions concerning this shift, ranging from the competing moral and historical claims of the Israelis and Palestinians to the internal politics of each side to whether the Palestinians would be satisfied with a return to the pre-1967 borders. All of these must be addressed, but this analysis is confined to a single issue: whether a return to the 1967 borders would increase the danger to Israel's national security. Later analyses will focus on Palestinian national security issues and those of others.

Early Borders

It is important to begin by understanding that the pre-1967 borders are actually the borders established by the armistice agreements of 1949. The 1948 U.N. resolution creating the state of Israel created a much smaller Israel. The Arab rejection of what was called "partition" resulted in a war that created the borders that placed the West Bank (named after the west bank of the Jordan River) in Jordanian hands, along with substantial parts of Jerusalem, and placed Gaza in the hands of the Egyptians.


The 1949 borders substantially improved Israel's position

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DPRK external strategy under the Dear Leader - a timeline

1994 – Death of Great Leader

1996 – Agriculture accounts for nearly 30% of DPRK economy

1997-1999 – DPRK sends over 200 officials to numerous countries for economic training.

1998 – Taepodong-1 missile claimed to have put small satellite into orbit, but third stage failure. US considers strike against DPRK.

March 1999 – US and DPRK agree to allow US access to North Korean nuclear reactors. At a Japan – South Korea summit, South Korean President says "We must tell the North that it would be the North which would suffer massive damage if it launched (a) provocation". Japanese Prime Minister endorsed South Korea's "Sunshine policy" to shift North Korean behaviour through a process of engagement particularly focusing on bilateral economic arrangements.

June 1999 - Naval clashes in the West Sea

June 2000 – North/South summit, US Secretary of State visits Pyongyang.

November 2000 – South Korea claims monthly inter-Korea trade is $34 million, 40% increase on previous year.

December 2000 – Port of Nampo closed to South Korean ships

June 2002 – Naval clashes in the West Sea, again during the crab fishing season

December 2002 – DPRK begins removing IAEA seals and cameras from its nuclear facilities prior to restarting nuclear programme.

January 2003 – DPRK withdraws from Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, says it will not readmit officials from IAEA, says the only way to resolve stand-off is direct bilateral negotiations with USA. Kim Jong Il takes 80 person delegation to China. On visit to Shanghai he says "The state of Shanghai's development is proof that the policy of reform and opening-up adopted by the Chinese Communist Party is correct."

February 2003 – Reports that Kim felt Shanghai "Would only serve as a rough guide in the development of North Korea's future policy"

April 2003 – DPRK Foreign Ministry spokesman says DPRK is "successfully reprocessing more than 8,000 spent fuel rods at the final phase....after resuming our nuclear activities from December last year." In context of Iraq war it says that to prevent war and preserve national sovereignty "it is necessary to have a powerful physical deterrent force only." Assesses US Iraq battle plan – sending in ground forces simultaneously with the air campaign – showed that US believed Iraq had no deployable weapons of mass destruction, or they would have withheld troops until after the air campaign had neutralised them. Nuclear weapons will stop the USA stepping over the DMZ. DPRK and US officials meet in China to resume talks on DPRK nuclear programme.

August 2003 – DPRK agrees to six party talks

September 2003 – DPRK Cabinet reshuffle. Pak Pong Ju, a reformer of sorts, appointed Prime Minister. Others are technocrats or are closely devoted to Kim Jong Il. New Foreign Minister and Trade Minister are good negotiators, bright and pragmatic.

June 2004: The US offer tens of thousands of tonnes of heavy fuel oil in exchange for North Korea dismantling its nuclear weapons programme.

July 2004 - Six party talks break down

September 2004: North Korea announces it has developed a plutonium-based nuclear device

 

January 2005 – Visiting US Congressmen assure leadership that US has no intention of overthrowing government of Kin Jong Il. DPRK says it "would not stand against the USA, but respect and treat it as a friend unless the latter slanders the former's system and interferes in its internal affairs." Kim Jong Il publicly visits heavy industry plants.

February 2005 – DRK says it "has manufactured (nuclear weapons) for self-defence to cope with the Bush administration's ever more undisguised policy to isolate and stifle the DPRK." Rumours that KJI's son to be groomed for succession. Russia puts Pacific Fleet and Rocket Forces on heightened alert status to prevent US incursion into Russian airspace if it responds. DPRK again leaves six party talks citing US antagonism

March 2005 – DPRK Prime Minister visits China for 6 days, says DPRK ready to resume talks when US apologises for calling NK "evil" and "an outpost of tyranny." Studies China's economic reform and opening programme. Foreign Ministry spokesman calls for six-party talks on DPRK nuclear programme should be transformed into disarmament talks for the whole Korean peninsula as DPRK is now a "fully fledged nuclear weapons state." North and South Korean officials meet at Kaesong to discuss continued economic co-operation there. China sends "goodwill delegation" to Pyongyang.

July 2005: Talks re-start after the US and South Korea offers electricity and food aid but after 13 days the talks are temporarily suspended.

August 2005 – South Korea allows DPRK ships to traverse Cheju Strait at southern tip of Korea.

September 2005 – DPRK seems to indicate it would be willing to abandon its nuclear weapons programme in exchange for access to light water nuclear reactor technology. Meeting of six-party conference : South Korea, Japan, Russia, China, USA and DPRK. Joint Statement says "the goal of the six-party talks is the verifiable denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula in a verifiable manner."

US Treasury action under Patriot Act persuades Asian banks to freeze legal and illegal North Koprean bank accounts.

November 2005 – Six party talks collapse again after 3 days

May 2006 – DRRK Foreign Minister arrives in China for week-long visit amidst efforts to bring it back to the six-party negotiating table.

June 2006 – Satellite reconnaissance shows Taepodong-2 missile sitting on launch pad for a week. Its estimated range would take it to Guam and Alaska. Missile tests took place the following month.

October 2006 – DPRK carries out nuclear test. The UN Security Council votes unanimously to impose weapons and financial sanctions.

 

December 2006 – Negotiations with US Treasury to release impounded DPRK funds. Six-party talks resume in Beijing. US President Bush signs Act to give India access to nuclear technology despite its failure to accede to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Outgoing UN Secretary General urges Japan to maintain its non-nuclear position.

Revenue of Kaeson Special Economic Zone totals $74 million. Consists mostly of small to medium sized South Korean-subsidised producing low end consumer products.

February 2007 – Agreement at six-party talks for DPRK to shut down Yongbyon nuclear plant (inc reprocessing) within 60 days. Emergency economic aid and energy supplies to DPRK agreed. Five working groups on other issues to be set up.

Kim Yong Il appointed PM of DPRK.

May 2007 – South Korea calls for general defence talks with DPRK and testing of two inter-Korea rail lines. DPRK continues to press for redrawing of Northern Limit Line (maritime extension of DMZ which DPRK doesn't accept but generally abides by)

September 2007 - After further talks Washington announces that North Korea has agreed to disable its nuclear facilities and give up plutonium stocks by the end of the year.

 

December 2007 – DPRK fails to meet its commitment to release a list of its nuclear facilities and programmes.

 

March 2008 – DPRK tests surface-to-ship missiles in West Sea. South Korean officials thrown out of Kaeson SEZ.

 

June 2008 - The cooling tower is demolished at the Yongbyon nuclear facility in a grand symbolic gesture. The US removes the North from its list of state sponsors of terror.

 

September - December 2008 - North Korea begins to reassemble its Yongbyon nuclear plant. Negotiations with the US break down again.

 

February 2009 – DPRK prepares further missile tests inc latest version of Taepodong LRBM

 

May 2009 – DPRK Central Special Development Guidance Bureau announces "the nullification of all incumbent regulations and contracts regarding the Kaesong industrial complex" and threatens to close it down if workers not paid more. 100 companies employ 39,000 North Koreans earning $26.8 million last year. Average wages about half what South Korean companies pay in China. North Korea had a $1.28 billion trade deficit with China last year.

 

May-June 2009 - North Korea conducts a second nuclear weapons test. The UN Security Council condemns the test and imposes further sanctions. North Korea military mission declares that it will no longer be bound by the 1953 Armistice Agreement because of USA and South Korea violation as a result of Proliferation Security Initiative.

 

July 2009 – DPRK carries out missile tests. Seoul and Washington discuss a "grand bargain" of massive economic aid and security guarantees to North Korea if it abandons its nuclear ambitions. Pyongyang rejects the proposals.

 

September 2009 – DPRK tells UN it has almost completed experimental uranium extraction and continues to weaponise plutonium from Yongbyon. US nuclear envoy visits Asia.

 

November 2009 – North Korea nuclear negotiator visits New York and California. North and South Korean navies engage in a skirmish along the disputed Yellow Sea border. A North Korean patrol boat retreats in flames.

 

December 2009 – US nuclear negotiator visits Pyongyang. In New Year message DPRK makes the establishment of a "lasting peace system" on the Korean peninsula a priority.

 

January 2010 – North Korea shore batteries fire. Live fire response from South Korea. North Korea media urges USA to negotiate replacement of 1953 Armistice Agreement.

 

February 2010 – DPRK Prime Minister states his country's desire for an end to hostile relations between North Korea and the USA, and calls for dialogue and negotiations.

 

March 2010 - A 1,200-tonne South Korean corvette, the Cheonan, explodes near the disputed sea border, killing 46. A multinational investigation blames a North Korean submarine. Pyongyang denies the attack.

 

May 2010 – Minister for the People's Armed Forces demands South Korea allow a DPRK team to visit the South to assess evidence supporting claims about the Choenan sinking. Cites the 1992 Basic Agreement "South and North Korea shall resolve peacefully, through dialogue and negotiation, any difference of views and disputes arising between them." Dear Leader visits China, but is silent on the issue. First Vice Minister for the People's Armed Forces relieved of all his posts.

 

August 2010 – Former President Jimmy Carter visits North Korea. Dear Leader apparently in China at the same time.

 

November 21, 2010 - US nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker is shown North Korea uranium enrichment facility and reports he is "stunned" by advanced equipment on display.

 

November 23, 2010 - North Korean artillery bombards South Korea's Yeonpyeong island, killing four. South Korea fires back, cuts off all remain aid and trade with the North. Analysts warn the Korean peninsula now on the brink of war.

 

January 10, 2011 - Under diplomatic pressure from China, the North Koreans offers unconditional talks with the South. These are initially rejected, but Seoul later agrees warning that the North must show it is sincere about nuclear disarmament.

 

January 31, 2011 - A report to the United Nations warns that North Korea has undeclared uranium enrichment facilities and is continuing to proliferate weapons and missile technologies to Iran.

 

February 8, 2011 - Preliminary military-to-military talks held between North and South Korea to explore the possibility of re-starting negotiations.

 

February 9, 2011 – North and South Korea agree to talks on family reunions. North Korea walks out of military talks.

 

February 2011 - A number of Western countries have provided millions in financial aid in recent months, including more than $3 million from Switzerland, some $2.4 million from Canada and $2.3 million from Norway. Reports that DPRK is continuing to urgently solicit food aid. North Korea's food situation has been worsened by an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease that has infected more than 10,000 head of cows, pigs and oxen. North Korea's government food distribution programme will run dry in May and put one-quarter of the country's 24 million people at risk of starvation, the United Nations warns.

Reports that China is shoring up the North Korean regime with billions of dollars in backdoor trade deals that threaten to undermine UN sanctions imposed after the country's illegal missile and nuclear tests. Satellite images show North Korea has almost completed a second long range missile launchpad, amid US concerns that Pyongyang's ballistic missile programme is becoming a direct threat. North Korea has started digging tunnels at its nuclear test site in apparent preparation for a third atomic detonation. Beijing blocking release of a report by a UN panel about a sophisticated new enrichment plant, diplomats say..

March 2011 - China is reinforcing fences and has stepped up patrols along its border with North Korea as fears mount of a catastrophic famine in the DPRK.

April 2011 - DPRK celebrates the 99th birthday of its founding father Kim Il-sung as South Korean activists launched cross-border leaflets calling for the overthrow of the regime led Kim Jong Il.

May 2011 – Amnesty International says DPRK's political prison camps have grown in size over the past decade and now hold an estimated 200,000 people in "horrific" conditions. The remains of an RAF fighter pilot who lay buried in an unmarked grave outside the North Korean capital Pyongyang for more than 50 years handed over to British diplomats after years of careful negotiations. Kim Jong-un's visit to China with Kim Jung Il sends out a clear message that confirms of his seniority within DPRK and reflects of his role as heir apparent. An American citizen who had been held for six months in North Korea on unspecified charges was freed on Saturday, as Washington envoy Robert King concluded the first official US visit to the country for two years.

North Korea has nearly finished building a sprawling naval base for "attack hovercraft" near the tense sea border with South Korea, according to a government source close to leader Kim Jong-il.