Articles and analysis

Executive Summary — Arctic Security & Environmental Change, 2025 (Curated by Robin Ashby, sourced by ChatGPT)
 
1. Accelerating great-power competition and security strategic focus
 
The Arctic has increasingly been defined as a strategic arena for geopolitical competition in 2025. Intelligence assessments and defence leadership statements emphasise that the Arctic is transitioning from a comparatively cooperative region to a theatre of great-power contestation, with Russia, the United States and China intensifying activities and strategic planning in the High North. A recent risk assessment by Danish Defence Intelligence highlights this trend, noting that the region’s importance has grown as ballistic trajectories and missile routes are directly relevant to global defence postures via the High North.
NATO’s top military commander has explicitly stated that the Arctic is now a front line of strategic competition, reflecting rising concerns about allied deterrence, Russia’s military posture and broader security linkages.

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Crossroads:
The 1862 Great Sioux Uprising and its geopolitical implications for today

A two part series by Joseph E. Fallon

Part 1
Lincoln's template for the dispossession of American Indians

One of the first Indian treaties to be broken by the United States was a colonial treaty with the Wea tribe. In 1751, "the Wea and the Piankashaw signed a treaty with the British and accepted an alliance with the Pennsylvania colony." With the outbreak of the American Revolution, the Wea allied themselves with the British. It was a fateful decision. As the war ended, the Wea wrote to London. "In endeavoring to assist you, it seems we have wrought our own destruction."

By a series of new treaties with the new republic, the Wea were forced further and further West. The process of dispossessing the Wea took seventy years. In 1862, Lincoln created a template to expediate dispossession of American Indians in months instead of decades.

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What Decisive Measures can the UK take now in Concert with Europe, to help deliver Peace and Maintain the International Rules-based Order?

A cartoon of a person wearing glassesDescription automatically generatedWithin Europe, the UK's importance as the last-ditch bastion of defence against tyranny within the continent has decreased. In 1815 it was paramount, in 1915 it was fundamental, in 1945 decisive; in 2025 it has declined, but could yet be hugely significant in leading by example.

UK's 200 years at the forefront of World history, of democratic leadership and of freedom under the law have not yet been entirely eroded. Nations still look up to us and global superpowers may yet heed us if we can but find a coherent and resolute voice. To be heard properly, this voice should be one of modest but confident thought-leadership, within a rattled. thus receptive Europe. It should also be well-placed to offer an Anglophone bridge to the US and a vital regional link into the FVEY intelligence agreement.

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