Syria : Bashar al-Assad is powerless to reform

In his speech on March 30th 2011, President Bashar al-Assad of Syria chose to be vague on reforms but emphatic on violent confrontation. He did not disappoint. Over 500 demonstrators have been killed by trigger happy soldiers and security operatives.  It would seem President Bashar has failed to absorb the lessons of Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen and Libya. The ruling clique assumed that Syria is immune from such upheavals and the people of Syria are incapable of protesting against the dictatorship. The regime's miscalculations increased by leaps and bounds. It mismanaged the crisis. It took the repression option and killed hundreds of people.

It's someone else's fault:

"The World and His Wife are against Syria".

At the same time, President Bashar and his Ministers busied themselves distributing accusations left right and centre attributing the demonstrations to American and Zionist plots and Arab conspiracies. The Syrian regime behaved like a headless chicken, with the abysmally servile Syrian media reflecting this state of haphazard fumbling and utter confusion. Blaming  hidden hands, infiltrators, the Mossad, the CIA,  the Islamists,  the Zionists, Lebanese MPs, Jordanian Elements, a Saudi Prince, Kuwaiti Salafists, Aljazeera,  Alarabiya,   BBC Arabic, Face book, fifth columnists, traitors, terrorists, in fact every Tom, Dick and Harry as well as every Jack and Jill are to blame except the regime itself.

Mitigating factors:

The regime considers itself as the last citadel of Pan-Arab Nationalism. It claims that it is targeted by others not because of tyranny, imprisonment of writers, bloggers, people with opposing views and critics but because it supports Hezbollah and Hamas. We all know this is a fallacy as the support is merely rhetorical and verbal. The regime fails to explain why the Golan Heights are still occupied since 1967 and there is no resistance to the Israeli occupation from within Syria itself.

Bunglers and deniers:

This regime is built on fear and patronage; there is no free press or civil society.  Bashar is committing a fatal error as he seems to be sleep-walking into  history  as yet another blood-stained tyrant.

In Dera'a where the protests started on March 18th the phones, water and electricity have been cut.  This is not the behaviour of a regime that has the slightest interest in democratic reforms.

The regime has committed a number of errors that would prove costly and could potentially bring the Bashar's regime down sooner than we think. The regime dismissed the protests and upheavals in Tunisia and Egypt by announcing that Syria is not Tunisia and it is not Egypt. It also fatally ignored the popular revolts in Yemen and Libya.

The regime has adopted a policy of denial. Journalists and world media is not allowed to enter Syria. Why?

Some activists argued that if Bashar was really interested in reforms, he would have dissolved Parliament and ordered the formation of a commission to prepare for Parliamentary and Presidential elections.  He would have dismantled the Baathist ruling party as some opposition figure demanded. But he failed to give substance to his promised reforms. Lifting the emergency law was swiftly followed by harsh measures. This was cynical and stupid.

The regime seems unable to comprehend that massacres trigger uprisings, bloody sectarianism, external intervention, sanctions and International Criminal Court proceedings.

The choice was clear reform or repression. Bashar chose the latter. His failure to address demands for reforms resulted in more and more demands which in turn were met by bloodshed in Dera'a , Homs and other places. At this juncture Bashar has lost his credibility and no one believes him anymore.

Bashar is powerless:

Some observers believe that Bashar is too weak and is not in control. He is under the tight grip of his brother Maher and brother- in- law Assef Shawkat two of the highest ranking men in the security establishment.  He is also up against two anti-reform strong men Ali Mamlouk, Special Security adviser, and Hafez Makhlouf Head of General Intelligence.  These four men are opposed to reforms. They are totally focused on power, money and survival of the regime even if this means a blood bath.  Bashar al-Assad is paralysed under their spell. If a catastrophe is to be avoided, the army must intervene on the side of the Syrian people. This remains a distant prospect.

Nehad Ismail London based commentator on Middle East issues.

This article first appeared in Global Arab Network