Yemen's terror tsunami!

by James Spencer

A narrative has appeared of recent: should President Ali Abdullah Salih go as the People demand, then Yemen will lurch into Somali-like chaos, provide a haven for al-Qa'ida, and a launch point from which AQAP can attack the United States and her allies. Supporting a status quo candidate from the current, and compromised, political elite will do little to satisfy the myriad complaints of the regime's multiple violent opponents. Instead, the International Community must identify a candidate to replace President Salih. This candidate must achieve consensus on a range of systemic problems confronting the country, problems mostly due to the current regime's corrupt neglect. Should Yemenis achieve such consensus, terrorism and the other violent protest will disappear.

The author of the Chaos narrative is Ali Abdullah Salih – who has a personal interest in its perpetuation – but many pundits repeat it. With similar rote repetition of nuanced and comparative statements by US intelligence officials, Ali Abdullah Salih's line (that he – the 33-year Strong Man – is all that stands between current stability and Bombs Over Broadway) has gained acceptance.

Even the intensely rational SecDef Gates said "if that government collapses or is replaced by one that is dramatically more weak, then I think we'll face some additional challenges out of Yemen. There's no question about it. It's a real problem."

Director of the National Counter-Terrorism Center Michael Leitner preceded his remark that "I actually consider al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, with Awlaki as a leader within that organization, probably the most significant risk to the U.S. homeland." by saying "Al-Qaida, we believe, in Pakistan is at one of its weakest points in the past decade". He also caveated "I'm hesitant to rank them too carefully".