Arab Spring, Syrian shoots

By Nima Khorrami Assl
U K Defence Forum Researcher

After a slow start, the unrest sweeping the Middle East and North Africa has reached the Levant. Protesters, inflamed by a local matter, have been in the streets of Daraa, an agricultural town in southwest Syria that has been historically loyal to the regime, since March 15. Some protesters are long-time democracy activists demanding greater political rights and freedom. Nonetheless, the largest motivation is similar to what we have witnessed throughout the MENA region: state corruption and a "youth bulge" of younger citizens who find themselves with good educations but no opportunities for economic advancement.

(Editor's note : 15 years ago this was dubbed "revolutions of unfulfilled expectations" by our Patron General Lord Guthrie.)

So far, the Syrian regime has responded to the upheaval with conflicting statements that seem to demonstrate how ill-prepared Assad is for dealing with a crisis of this magnitude. The regime has at times painted protesters as religious extremists or foreign agents, but then has acknowledged their "legitimate" demands and pledged reforms. This was clearly evident in President Assad's speech on 6th April in which he failed to "come up with anything dramatically new or tangible" and that, in spite of initial optimisms, the situation in Syria remains unchanged. Protests were reported in various parts of the country on 8th April, with more scheduled for the following week, while a new government is being formed with the former Agriculture Minister, Adel Safar, as the new Syrian Prime Minister.

When Bashar al-Assad came to power in 2000, he began liberalizing the economy and society. As a result, high culture has boomed and foreign imports, tourism and arts are being revived. For the impoverished majority, however, the picture is grim. One-third of the population lives on $2 a day or less. Unemployment is rampant, and four years of drought have reduced Syria's eastern countryside, including Daraa, to a wasteland of dusty and destitute towns. Added to this is a new unwillingness to tolerate brutal suppression and vague promises of future reform.
The mukhabarat (secret police) and associated security forces, moreover, have been given so much leeway over the years that it is now extremely difficult to reform and/or reduce their power. Any radical attempt by the President and his allies to shake-up the security forces might indeed result in a backlash from the prominent forces loyal to the Assad family, thereby further undermining the regime's ability to govern. This is of paramount importance because current instability in Syria provides Syria's regional rivals, particularly Gulf States, with a rare opportunity to seek to precipitate its demise.

And to make matters worse, the specter of sectarianism looms. Assad is from the minority Alawite sect of Islam, though his country is predominantly Sunni Muslim with sizable population of Christians and other religious minorities. Demonstrators in Daraa now chant "no Iran, no Hezbollah, we want a Muslim who fears God". The slogan is a swipe at the Alawites, a branch of Shia Islam, and also a rejection of Syria's close ties to Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah.