Israel has expressed serious concerns over the preliminary U.S.-Iranian agreement, which in theory will lift sanctions levied against Tehran and end its nuclear program. That was to be expected. Less obvious is why the Israeli government is concerned and how it will change Israel's strategic position, George Friedman considers for Stratfor.

Israel's current strategic position is excellent. After two years of stress, its peace treaty with Egypt remains in place. Syria is in a state of civil war that remains insoluble. Some sort of terrorist threat might originate there, but no strategic threat is possible. In Lebanon, Hezbollah does not seem inclined to wage another war with Israel, and while the group's missile capacity has grown, Israel appears able to contain the threat they pose without creating a strategic threat to Israeli national interests. The Jordanian regime, which is aligned with Israel, probably will withstand the pressure put on it by its political opponents.

In other words, the situation that has existed since the Camp David Accords were signed remains in place. Israel's frontiers are secure from conventional military attack. In addition, the Palestinians are divided among themselves, and while ineffective, intermittent rocket attacks from Gaza are likely, there is no Intifada underway in the West Bank.

Therefore, Israel faces no existential threats, save one.

Russia is deeply concerned about an Islamic insurgency enveloping the North Caucasus near the shores of the Black Sea as the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympic Games approaches, writes Chris Hodges. Bombings, shootings and assassinations occur almost daily as militants try to drive out the Russian government from Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino Balkaria and North Ossetia. The Caucasian Knot, which monitors insurgent violence in the region, reports 700 people were killed in violent clashes in 2012. At least 495 people died in the first six months of 2013. Efforts to reign in the insurgency are far from the positive story that Moscow predicted. Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) has warned that terrorists are planning to target the international sports event. Sochi could offer a platform for those who have a vision of an Islamic state independent of Russia to broadcast their message to the world that the Kremlin is illegitimate, oppressive and incapable of bringing prosperity and security to the region.

The environment in which UK defence sector operates is going through what Paul Everitt, Chief Executive of ADS, in an exclusive interview with Nick Watts of Great North News Services called "an important and challenging time". With defence spending constrained in the UK, Europe and elsewhere, it became widely recognised by industry and Government, that reform is required to ensure that industry continues to deliver the right equipment and services at a price the taxpayer can afford.

As a result, the Government is currently undertaking a thorough review through the Defence Reform Bill, which is currently moving through the legislative process.

Chinese Drought, Wheat, and the Egyptian Uprising: How a Localized Hazard Became Globalized
By Troy Sternberg. Originally published in The Arab Spring and Climate Change http://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/climatechangearabspring-ccs-cap-stimson.pdf

This is an abridgement by the author for Defence Viewpoints

Chinese drought, global wheat prices and revolution in Egypt appear unrelated yet became linked by a series of events in winter 2011. As the world's attention focused on protests in Tahrir Square political and socio-economic motives were discussed while significant indirect causes of the Arab Spring received little mention. In what could be called 'hazard globalization' a one-in-a-hundred year winter drought in China contributed to global wheat shortages and skyrocketing bread prices in Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer. Government legitimacy and civic society were upset by protests focused on poverty, bread and political discontent. A tale of climate disaster, market forces and authoritarian regimes helps to unravel the complexity surrounding public revolt in the Middle East. This article examines the link between natural hazards, food security and political stability in two developing countries and reflects on the links between climate events and social processes.

Last month, the 7th Armoured Brigade, the "Desert Rats", arrived at Camp Bastion in Helmand: the last major deployment to Afghanistan before the UK pulls out its combat troops at the end of next year. Britain's wars, for now, are coming to an end. But what does that ending mean for the soldiers coming home? David Finkel, author of Thank You for Your Service, a new account of the travails of the returning warrior, puts it brutally: it means coming "out of one war into another".

Homer's Iliad is the first and greatest poetic account of the first type of war. But it is the Odyssey that takes on the second kind: the war of the homecoming.

Drone Wars for November 2013 is compiled by Elayne Jude for Great North News Service

The month opened with the killing of Hakeemullah Mehsud, the leader of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, on the day following the Pakistani Government's announcement of a formal peace negotiation with the Pakistani Taliban. Mehsud was thought to be linked to a suicide bombing in Afghanistan in 2009, which killed seven CIA operatives, and to the 2010 attempted Times Square bombing. It has also been said that under his leadership, the Taliban targeted Pakistani soldiers and civilians, slaughtered Shia Muslims and attempted to wreck this year's general election by targeting liberal parties. For the Pakistani government, the killing adds another twist to its tortuous relationship with the US, whose drone campaign it publicly denounces but secretly, if selectively, has supported. Whatever the real prospects for the peace talks he was to have led, Mehsud is now hailed as a holy martyr by his own side. His death provoked widespread international reaction:

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/hakimullah-mehsud-taliban-releases-image-martyred-leader/story?id=20780493

http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-why-hakimullah-mehsuds-death-terrifies-pakistan/20131108.htm

http://www.thenation.com/blog/176982/killing-hakimullah-mehsud

NEW AGE OF WARFARE

Al-Qaeda's attacks on the U.S. introduced the public to a new age of warfare; unconventional methods of attack, unprecedented in origin and execution, waged by a non-state actor that lacks aspects intrinsic in the identity of a nation-state like nationality, language and sometimes-recognized territory, targeting economic and political icons in the heartland of the most capable superpower. This has introduced us to a new age of organized and ideologically driven terrorism that's fueled by the use of technology. This has subsequently required the international intelligence apparatus to widen the scope of understanding unconventional threats and prepare for a new evolution in warfare. For 9/11 it was suicide-airliner bombings, making way for new airport security measures, TSA empowerment, and all sorts of no-fly lists. Today, unconventional warfare 2.0 emerged – arguably the most "dangerous" type. Terrorist groups worldwide have tapped into the immeasurable advantage of the Internet in communications, fundraising, financing, indoctrination and recruitment. From proprietary, password-protected web forums, to the fast-paced Twitter sphere, to hacking and cyber vigilantism. Using the available tools online, al-Qaeda's jihadist ideology has proliferated with ease, creating a cyberjihadist environment that facilitates its process of indoctrination and recruitment, says Flashpoint Gobal Partners senior analyst Laith Alkhouri on TRAC .

Afghan News Roundup for November 2013 part 2 compiled by Elayne Jude for Great North News Service

Voter worries, khaki elephants, Opus prizewinner, Presidenial candidates (at last), Loya Jirga explained, Khan stops the traffic

Women voters not registering

Following the third round of voter registration, the Independent Election Commission (IEC) announced that turnout from Afghan women was low. Only thirty percent of the three million Afghans who have received voting cards this year are women.

The 2009 Presidential elections experienced low voter turnout, ballot stuffing and intimidation. Independent observers reported female participation of 35-38 percent. After the IEC's energetic outreach for 2014, registration of female voters falls short of what was desired, and what was previously achieved.