King 'Abdallah II of Jordan said recently that there was a civil war in Islam going on. He was only half right. It is not just a civil war within Islam, but across Arab society as a whole. This is not the Arab Spring turning to Winter, but something far more fundamental that the Arab Spring was simply one expression of - the fight for the very soul of the Arab world.
So while the F-15s, the Typhoons and the Mirages pour bombs on to the tyrants of ISIS, masquerading under their black flag, Western governments should stay sensitive to the fact that we are in fact fighting in conflicts far older than our technology and governments. In the heart of the Levant the ancient clash between Sunni and Shi'a is being played out in increasingly eschatological tones, but it is now enmeshed with wider, more modern conflicts; between rich and poor, moderate and conservative, urban and rural and, ultimately, over the final role of Islam in the modern Middle East society.