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Defence Viewpoints from UK Defence Forum

Analyst Eugene Chausovsky discusses the upcoming presidential elections in Kyrgyzstan and its implications for Russian influence and domestic stability.

THE Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan, on the same day as announcing a formal bid for his presidency, announced on Aug 15 that the US Manas air force base should be withdrawn from the country once its lease expires in 2014.

Atambayev has been a staunch ally of Russia and will likely further Moscow's interests if he takes the presidency.

However, a stronger presidential system coupled with the country's current fractious politics could put Kyrgyzstan at risk for further social instability and could complicate Moscow's hold over the country.

Atambayev is widely considered to be the front runner in the presidential election race in Kyrgyzstan, where elections are scheduled to take place in October.

Atambayev is known to be very pro-Russian as can be seen by his numerous visits to Moscow during his time as Prime Minister, particularly during times of crisis as well as his support of Kyrgyzstan's entry into
the Russian dominated Customs Union.

The timing of Atambayev's statement concerning Manas is also significant given that Russia is currently in talks with Kyrgyzstan to open another military base in the country's southern region of Osh.

While it was expected by many that Kyrgyzstan would allow the lease to expire, Atambayev has now made this his official stance. Therefore, removing the Manas space would solidify Russia's position in the country militarily and
put into jeopardy US plans to increase its military presence in the country as well.

This is related to talks about the US building its own additional military facility in the country, this one in the southern
province of Batken.

There are also wider implications behind Atambayev's statement on Manas as well as his decision to formally announce his presidency ambitions. With the upcoming presidential elections it is likely that Kyrgyzstan will turn to a stronger presidential system of government as opposed to the parliamentary system that they have put in place currently.

Under a stronger presidency, the country could become more stable, as a strong president could be able to get more things done than the weaker government has seen over the past year.

However, this does not necessarily resolve the country's political divisions, which are split between the North and the South. Because Atambayev is a northerner and doesn't have as much support in the South, any bold moves that he would take under a stronger presidency, were he to win the elections, would be under increased scrutiny.

Therefore, while Atambayev would likely facilitate Russia's strengthening its position in Kyrgyzstan, were he to win the elections, the continuing political tensions between the North and the South ensures that the risk for political instability within Kyrgyzstan remains.

By Nehad Ismail

It is clear the war has reached a decisive stage and Gaddafi's regime is to all intents and purposes has finished.

This is the end of a 41 year rule of a dysfunctional brutal regime that ruled by fear, torture and executions. Its mismanagement of the economy brought ruin to Libya and impoverished the Libyan people despite the huge oil and gas wealth. The regime has brutally attempted to suppress the opposition movement by shelling rebellious cities, and imprisoning and torturing those who speak out.

On the 27th June 2011 The International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor Moreno Ocampo has asked a three-judge panel to issue arrest warrants for Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, his second-eldest son, Saif al-Islam, and his intelligence chief, Abdullah Senussi.

The filing against Gaddafi came just three months into the uprising against his 41-year rule. Mr. Ocampo presented a 74-page document of evidence to the court in The Hague.

According to Press Report quoting Ocampo, the evidence shows Muammar Gaddafi personally ordered attacks on unarmed civilians. Gaddafi, Saif al-Islam and Abdullah Senussi held meetings to plan the crackdown. Security forces loyal to the government then attacked civilians in their homes, used heavy weaponry on funeral processions, and set up snipers to shoot at people as they left prayers at mosques.

Other reports indicated that thousands of documents showing in chilling detail orders from Muammar Gaddafi's senior generals to bombard and starve the people of Misrata had been gathered by war crimes investigators.

Despite the overwhelming evidence there is every chance that some kind of deal might let Gaddafi slip through unpunished? Every Libyan knows that Gaddafi regime used intimidation, terror and physical extermination of opponents to cling to power.

The dictator is not known for his conciliatory nature, nor is he known for respecting agreements. If he is allowed to stay free he will continue to instigate violence and tribal warfare. With his huge cash resources he can foment civil conflict. He would finance assassins, death squads, saboteurs, and mercenaries to carry out reprisals against his opponents. Gaddafi committed crimes against humanity. Hundreds of academics, dissidents and critics were executed in the 1980s and 1990 under the so-called "stray-dogs campaign". Libyans in Europe were targeted and assassinated. University lecturers were executed in front of school children and family members.

The terror campaign was not waged against the Libyan people only.  WPC Yvonne Fletcher was shot outside the Libyan embassy in London on 17th April 1984. Two men were believed to have committed the crime -  Mohammed Matouk and Abdul Qader Baghdadi - but no one has been charged, no one punished.

Agents working for the regime also carried out attacks against Rome and Vienna airports 1985. In 1986 Berlin Discotheque bombing was carried out by operatives working for the Libyan regime.

The regime supported terrorism against civilian targets around the World. The most infamous example is the 1988 blowing up of Pan Am Flight 103 from Heathrow to New York over the Scottish village of Lockerbie. Two hundred and fifty-nine passengers and crew were killed along with eleven local residents on the ground. Twenty years later Libya had paid US $ 2billion in compensation to the victims.

The most notorious crime committed by the regime occurred inside Libya itself on 28th June 1996 at the Abu Salim prison in Tripoli which housed political prisoners including Islamists. The prisoners had protested about the appalling conditions in the prison and demanded improvements in the living conditions.

When Muammar Gaddafi heard about the protest, he sent his brother-in-law Abdullah Senussi, head of military intelligence to manage the situation. Quoting from Daniel Kawczynski Book "Seeking Gaddafi" "Senussi agreed to meet the prisoners' demand and had a guard held hostage released. The following morning at 7 o'clock, he ordered more than a thousand prisoners to gather in the prison's central courtyard. For four hours, guards posted on rooftops around the courtyard shot at the assembled prisoners. It is said that 1200 men were killed. One can only imagine the bloodshed and terror of that day".

Gaddafi and his henchmen must not be allowed to escape unpunished. It would be a betrayal of the Libyan people and the relatives of the thousands of victims if Gaddafi and his henchmen and in particular his brother-in-law Abdullah Senussi are allowed to get away without facing justice to account for their crimes against the Libyan people.

Nehad Ismail is a London-based writer on Middle east Affairs. This article first appeared in the Huffington Post


Major General Nick Pope, the Chief of the Defence Staff's Communications Officer, said this morning:

"With Free Libyan Forces advancing into Tripoli, UK forces continued to strike at Colonel Qadhafi's remaining apparatus of repression within the city, as NATO maintained pressure on the former regime.

"On Sunday morning, Royal Air Force Tornado and Typhoon aircraft mounted a precision strike before dawn on the military intelligence operations room in Tripoli, close to the Baroni intelligence facility which the RAF had successfully bombed 24 hours previously.  Nine Paveway guided bombs were delivered with great accuracy on the target.  Later in the day, an armed reconnaissance patrol identified and destroyed one of Qadhafi's main battle tanks positioned on the outskirts of the city.

"At sea, HMS Liverpool was conducting surveillance off Tripoli when she sighted a small Maltese-registered vessel which had been damaged by hostile fire while leaving Tripoli port, apparently with evacuees embarked.  The vessel was under way but her manoeuvrability was impaired.  HMS Liverpool passed a line to the vessel and towed her to open waters where she was able to proceed safely.  Liverpool alerted the Maltese authorities to the vessel's condition, and then was able to return to her duties off the coast.

"The strike missions flown by the RAF and other allied fast jets were only made possible by the large fleet of combat support aircraft mustered by NATO, including Royal Air Force VC10 and Tristar tankers, plus Sentry, Sentinel and Fleet Air Arm Sea King surveillance platforms. Since the start of military operations on 19 March, Royal Navy, Royal Air Force and Army Air Corps strikes have damaged or destroyed over 890 former regime targets which posed a threat to the Libyan people, ranging from secret police and intelligence headquarters, to several hundred tanks, artillery pieces and armed vehicles.

"In the early hours of Saturday morning, Royal Air Force Tornado GR4s had conducted a precision strike on a key communications facility in south west Tripoli, used by the former regime intelligence organisations headed by Abdullah Senussi, concealed in a building known as the Baroni Centre.  As ever with a target in the heart of the city, extreme care was taken in planning the mission to ensure any risk of civilian casualties was avoided.  Five precision guided Paveway bombs made direct
hits on the building.  Heading south from Tripoli, the RAF aircraft then detected one of Qadhafi's main battle tanks on the outskirts of the city and destroyed it with a further Paveway weapon.

"In the course of Saturday afternoon, an RAF patrol successfully engaged an artillery piece on the western edge of Tripoli, and attacked a nearby command and control facility.  Around midnight, Tornado and Typhoon aircraft destroyed another command and control facility, located in south west Tripoli, then proceeded east to Sirte, 240 miles away, to destroy a third such installation."

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