"Extra time" for Turkish-Armenian "football diplomacy"

By Vahan Dilanyan.

Turkish-Armenian rapprochement could resume after Parliamentary elections in Turkey in 2011. After the elections Turkish authorities will not be threatened by the loss of votes and will be ready for courageous steps in the normalisation of relations with Armenia.

"In the 21st century the existence of closed borders in Europe is not a normal phenomenon," the British Ambassador to Armenia, Charles Lonsdale, told journalists on the 15th February. London still hopes that suspended talks between Armenia and Turkey will resume.

The optimism of Western leaders towards Armenian-Turkish reconciliation received a setback in April 2010 when Yerevan suspended the ratification of two accords aimed at normalizing relations with Turkey. Both countries had previously resumed dialogue after Armenian President, Serge Sargsyan, invited his Turkish counterpart, Abdullah Gul, to attend a Turkish-Armenian soccer match in Yerevan in September 2008. Armenia halted the approval of the accords because of Turkey's lack of political will to normalise relations "without preconditions".

Due to Azeri distress over the process, Ankara brought preconditions to the negotiation table, mainly demanding Yerevan to make concessions in the ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution. Armenian authorities stated that linking the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute to the Armenian-Turkish talks would harm both of the processes. Turkey has kept the border closed with Armenia since 1993 as a sign of its support for Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. However, the current Turkish preconditions contain other dimensions in addition to the appeasing of Azeri "jealousy" toward Turkey's rapprochement with Armenia.

Turkish foreign policy is dictated by domestic trends

The argument that "foreign policy is a continuation of domestic policy" can easily be applied to Turkey. The ruling AK Party (AKP) is affected by the positions of its voters while conducting steps in the international arena, no matter if they may contradict the foreign policy interests of Turkey.

Though Turkey is a major American ally in the Middle East - as well as a member of NATO - Ankara has shown several times its non-neutral position regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Turkish criticism of Israel started by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Davos was activated after the municipal elections in 2009. In these elections, the AKP, for the first time in its history registered a decrease in votes (39-40%). Although they won the election, they still in a sense suffered a political defeat.

Turkish leaders then felt a need to satisfy the voters' interests, since there was a growing trend of support toward the Nationalist and Kemalist parties. The solution was found by combining the "zero problems with neighbours" doctrine of Foreign Minister, Ahmed Davutoglu, with Turkish nationalistic sentiments. This has helped boost the popularity and prestige of the AKP in the eyes of Turkish society.

The passing of judgment on "Israeli occupation", the rapprochement with Russia, the subsequent cold shouldering of the US, and finally the preconditions presented to Armenia of "withdrawal of troops from Nagorno-Karabakh" are all in line with that very strategy.

Toward Parliamentary elections

In recent years there has been a remarkable positive change in Turkish public opinion towards Armenians. This has developed through public diplomacy and further influenced by the assassination of the Turkish-Armenian journalist, Hrant Dink. His assassination prompted a demonstration by thousands of Turks, complete with slogans like "we are all Hrant, we are all Armenians". However a recent public opinion survey showed that the majority of Turks are still against the potential opening of the border with Armenia and the normalisation of diplomatic ties with Yerevan.

In preparation for Parliamentary elections to be held in the first week of June 2011, Turkish authorities have been continuing the rhetoric of "Armenia's aggression against Azerbaijan". Addressing the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) on 26th January, Abdullah Gül reconfirmed the Turkish position over establishing dialogue with Armenia. Recalling that he was the first Turkish president to visit Armenia, Gul said Turkey wants to normalise relations with its neighbour, but the occupation of Azerbaijani lands must cease. That rhetoric has gone so far that Erdogan even threatened to forcefully expel all the illegal Armenian immigrants from Turkey last year.

The lack of political will for the normalisation of relations with Armenia will undoubtedly remain active until the elections. After which there will not be a risk of losing voters and Ankara will be ready to resume the process of normalising relations with Armenia. Turkish leaders should use the "extra time" to resume the football diplomacy with Armenia by establishing diplomatic relations to allow the mutually beneficial and prosperous coexistence of two Nations. Armenian-Turkish rapprochement is one of the exceptional cases where superpowers' interests coincide, and therefore the process cannot be simply aborted.

Vahan Dilanyan is a political scientist pursuing as PhD at the Public Administration Academy of Armenia. He has been the Chairman of the Political Developments Research Centre since its establishment in 2006.

This article was originally published in Global Politician on the 17th February 2011. Reproduced by permission of the author. Edited for Defence Viewpoints by Adam Dempsey, UK Defence Forum