Caspian Sea Basin : Part 3 - EU, NATO and Azerbaijan

By Brigadier Patrick Nopens

In the last year three events in particular have alarmed the West and undrlined the importance of the South Caucasus and the Caspian.

A first event was the War in Georgia in August last year when Russia returned by force of arms to the South Caucasus. The objective was not only to lay its hand on South Ossetia and Abkhazia but also to demonstrate that the energy corridor south of the Caucasus could be interrupted at will by Russia. Russia demonstrated this most potently by aerial attacks on sites in the immediate vicinity of the Baku-Tiblisi-Ceyan pipeline. You don't always have to hit the target to make your point.

A second decisive event took place on the 7th of January 2009 when Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine, officially because of a price dispute. Ukraine thereupon closed the gas supply to Europe. It took until the 18th of January for Russia and Ukraine to reach a compromise solution under heavy European pressure and for gas supplies to resume. This crisis was about geopolitics rather than economics. By underlining the unreliability of Ukraine as a transit country Russia attempts to gain support from western governments for by-passsing Eastern European countries and Poland, i.e. North and South Stream pipeline projects. This crisis acted as a wake up call for Europe to develop a comprehensive long term energy strategy.

And a third event - more constructive this time – was the launch of the European Union's Eastern Partnership (EaP) on the 20th of March. At the EU summit in Prague on the 7th of May all EU members together with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine agreed on the main areas of co-operation, namely democracy, good governance and stability; economic integration and convergence with EU sectoral policies; energy security; and contacts between people.

EU NATO and Azerbaijan?

The West has interests in Azerbaijan beyond energy. Azerbaijan is a pivotal country in a pivotal area for several reasons:

• The South Caucasus is a crossroad between an axis running from Russia to the Middle East and a second one from Central Asia to Europe;

• Azerbaijan is one of the few secular Muslim countries;

• Azerbaijan has a pragmatic foreign policy and enjoys good relations with Turkey, the EU and the U.S.A., it has a strategic partnership with Russia , but complicated relationship with Iran;

• Azerbaijan possesses important oil and natural gas resources; it is part of an energy corridor that by-pass Russia and Iran.

• Azerbaijan has the largest population in the South Caucasus. It is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. For the West it is the most attractive Caspian Sea state.

The European Union can be considered the best model for Azerbaijan for a transition in political, economic, social, administrative, judicial and humanitarian fields, and in the words of President Ilham Aliyev, "to modernize all spheres in our country". One of the major challenges for all countries of the FSU, Russia included, is indeed modernization, Partnership with the EU is probably the most effective way to achieve this.

The partnership between Azerbaijan and the EU consists of three components: a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement 1996; the European Neighbourhood Policy 2004; and Eastern Partnership 2009. The two main domains are assistance and conflict resolution.

Until 2007 support for institutional, legal and administrative reform as well as support in addressing the social consequences of transition was carried out in the framework of Technical Assistance to the Commonwealth of Independent States (TACIS). TACIS also provided essential assistance to the implementation of Azerbaijan's Poverty Reduction Strategy launched in 2003.

The new Country Strategy Paper (CSP) 2007-2013 covers financial assistance to Azerbaijan under the new European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument (ENPI). It is accompanied by an ENPI National Indicative Programme (NIP) for 2007-2010 whose main priorities are: (1) Democratisation, rule of law and fundamental freedoms; (2) Socio-economic reforms and legal approximation to the EU; (3) Energy and transport.

Azerbaijan also participates in different regional and thematic programmes under the ENPI, such as the European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights (EIDHR).

The conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh remains the major impediment to development and contributes to the overall regional instability. In July 2003 the creation of the post of the EU Special Representative for the Southern Caucasus became a way to facilitate the dialogue between the EU and the countries of the region. For conflict settlement on Nagorno-Karabakh the EU Special Representative supports the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group (currently the US, France and the Russian Federation). However, the EU has no direct role in this process.

However EaP is already up for a review. The Swedish presidency has been asked to draw up guidance for a review of the aims of EU cooperation with the countries of the EaP. The EU goal remains bringing the three countries of the South Caucasus as closely as possible in line with its laws and procedures. All three countries are being offered association agreements which could lead to free trade and visa liberalisation. EU membership, as before, is not on offer. This puts Georgia in the same league as Azerbaijan and Armenia even if Georgia had hoped that it would be grouped with Ukraine on a faster track to the EU.

Partnership with NATO

Azerbaijan is member of EAPC and PfP . NATO cooperation consists of security cooperation, defence and security reform, civil emergency planning, science and environment and public information.

Cooperation with NATO allows for close military ties with two of Azerbaijan's most important allies, i.e. the U.S.A. and Turkey. Neither is member of the EU but both are the most potent western military powers in the region. For the time being the military forces that can be generated within the framework of ESDP are not capable of projecting sufficient power in the area if need should be,

security cooperation

• A two-platoon-sized unit from Azerbaijan is serving alongside NATO forces, as part of a Turkish contingent, in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. In the past it also contributed to peace keeping operations in Kosovo;

• Azerbaijan participates in the Partnership Action Plan on Terrorism (PAP-T);

• Azerbaijan and NATO cooperate in increasing air and maritime security in Azerbaijan's airspace and the Caspian Sea;

• Just as the EU, NATO has no direct role in negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, NATO takes an interest in this process and encourages both countries to continue their efforts aimed at a peaceful resolution of the conflict. Peaceful resolution of conflicts is a core value of NATO, and is one of the main commitments that all Partner countries commit to when joining the Partnership for Peace.

Defence and security reform

With regard to defence and security reform:

• NATO assists Azerbaijan in establishing democratic control over the armed forces;

• Cooperation on strategic documents on defence and security, a new military doctrine and training methods is ongoing.

• Consultations on budgeting ;

• NATO assists Azerbaijan in creating modern, mobile, high-readiness, well-equipped and cost-effective forces that are interoperable with those of the Allies;

• NATO finally is involved in optimizing military education.

Civil emergency planning

In the framework of civil emergency planning Azerbaijan is involved in NATO's Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Centre (EADRCC)

Under the Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Programme, Azerbaijan has received grant awards for about 30 cooperative projects.

NATO improves access to information and increases public awareness of NATO and the benefits of NATO-Azerbaijan cooperation.

Nagorno Karabakh

It is difficult, on the one hand, to consider Azerbaijan as an indispensable strategic ally for Europe's energy security while, on the other hand, to fail to support Azerbaijan in its efforts to peacefully regain control over its territory. Several UN resolutions, NATO declarations and Council of Europe positions have reaffirmed the principle of territorial integrity.

A war over Nagorno-Karabakh would have devastating consequences. It would destabilize the region and threaten the security of energy supplies from the Caspian to the international markets and undermine the prospects of the southern gas corridor connecting the EU gas market with Caspian producers. Turkey and Russia would probably support opposing sides, while Europe and the US would sooner or later have to get involved. The price of a conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh would be extremely high, not only for the EU and NATO members but especially for all parties directly involved.

The EU's new Eastern Partnership cites as its goal stability, security and prosperity. Without the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict this will never be achievable and the region will remain volatile. Therefore the EU needs to show that it has learned its lesson in Georgia and become an active peacemaker in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Today the EU has no direct role in Nagorno-Karabakh. Although there is an EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus and there is an ENP and EaP, the EU is not part of the Minsk Group, where France has its own representative.

So what can the EU do?

Firstly, the EU needs to integrate itself into the Minsk process. If Europe is to become a main implementer and guarantor of a peace deal, Europe also needs to be a part of the deal-making process. However, decision making by consensus amongst 27 nations within the EU can be laborious. Therefore, the Minsk Group could remain the main negotiating mechanism, but leading a broader based group in which the EU and perhaps other international organizations and states would be involved.

Secondly, Europe needs to decide to what extent it supports Azerbaijan's territorial integrity.

Finally, the EU's experience from the Western Balkans is also relevant in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. The EU has shown itself well placed to take the lead in peacekeeping and reconstruction.

But it should be noted that NATO remains indispensable in all major EU peace operations. This is not only because of its means and expertise, but also because it has the support of the US and, in this particular case, Turkey.

NOTES :

1. The Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC) brings together 50 NATO and Partner countries for dialogue and consultation on political and security related issues.

2. The Partnership for Peace (PfP) is a programme of practical bilateral co-operation between individual Partner countries and NATO. It allows Partner countries to build up an individual relationship with NATO, choosing their own priorities for co-operation.

Brigadier Patrick Nopens retired from the Belgian army in December 2008. He served from 2000 to 2004 and from 2007 to 2008 as defence attaché in Moscow, from where he also covered Belarus and most of Central Asia and the South Caucasus.