By Laurent Rathborn, U K Defence Forum Researcher

"So long as Gaddafi is in power, NATO and its coalition partners must maintain their operations." So states the open letter published by European heads of state earlier this month. The preliminary report from the Libyan International Contact Group, broadcast from Doha, made clear that a continuation of the current conflict is unacceptable. Policy differences apparent in NATO member states have resulted in a variety of actions being taken to progress the situation - airstrikes are losing their effectiveness and have been doing so for weeks. Recent developments point to a new phase of the conflict and a hardening of opinion in parts of the alliance.

The recognition of the National Transitional Council by the contact group is key, and provides a way forward to either de jure partition (rather than the current de facto state) or more likely opens up an option for post-conflict reintegration. The formation of a rebel fighters fund from confiscated regime assets is currently under assessment, and although the legality of providing such a fund is not yet known, it would provide an important financial boost to what is increasingly being seen as a government-in-waiting. Military officers from the UK and France on the ground in an advisory role will improve NTC forces' effectiveness, and UAV strikes have been approved by the US.

All of these steps are designed to increase specific pressures on the regime. The introduction of UAV strikes is meant to eke out the maximum limits of what air power can do, targeting from close range regime armour previously inaccessible inside cities where they are mixed up with civilians and rebels. The proposed funding mechanism, if it passes scrutiny, at once erodes thoughts of a safe haven outside Libya for senior regime officials. Rather than entrenching violence and a hardening of tactics from those with dwindling ways out, it may encourage moves towards ending the violence such as dual-track reconciliation or surrender and simultaneously boosts the buying power of the opposition. This attack on funding and morale is boosted by political recognition of the NTC - the rebels are no longer rebels, they are the forces of a quasi-legitimate government, and those forces will now be advised by combat-hardened European troops who will provide both a morale boost and greater effectiveness in the field.