By Alasdair McKay U K Defence Forum Researcher

A recording has recently emerged in which Osama Bin Laden, who was killed on May 2nd 2011, pledges his support to the uprisings in the Arab world. In this 12-minute audio message, Bin Laden declares that "The winds of change will spread through the entire Islamic world, God willing." He moves on to say that "The youth need to make necessary preparations and not act without consulting the experience of the honest ones and those who are far from half solutions and compromises with the oppressors." Although he did not mention al-Qaida by name, he advised people struggling against their governments to consider "those who advised early on the necessity of uprooting these oppressive regimes, for they have great trust among all Muslims", which is a clear reference to his group. This endorsement marks a potentially pivotal development for the futures of both al-Qaida and the protest movement which has been named the Arab Spring.

For many, this year's spread of campaigns by men and women to achieve political, social and economic change in the Middle East and North Africa suggested that al-Qaida's approach and ethos may be lacking in appeal. It is no secret al-Qaida has harbored ambitions to violently overthrow the regimes in many Arab countries and establish "true Islamic states" in their place. But what has actually transpired throughout the year has been a flourishing of predominantly non-violent public protests, often from a markedly secular background. In these events, radical Islamists were sidelined as protestors sought emancipation, liberal equality and democracy, demands which differ considerably from the rigid Islamist goals of al-Qaida.

Few of the uprisings that have shaken the region, such as Tunisia's Jasmine revolution and Mubarak's downfall in Egypt, have seen significant Islamist involvement – let alone the extreme jihadist tactics vindicated by Bin Laden. Even in Yemen, which is considered to be a significant stronghold of al-Qaida, Islamism has played little role in the growing movement to unseat President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Yet,