Articles and analysis


Agostinho Cunha unnamed 1By: Dr Agostinho Paiva da Cunha

The United States, under the aegis of Donald Trump and the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement, have inaugurated a new era of conflict that compares to a state of war. This is not a war based on kinetic force, even though its military power remains an ever-present shadow. It is, rather, a Cognitive War. This strategy has been widely used both internally and in relations with allies and international partners, aiming for hegemony through the colonization of thought.

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Commentary NW 95537d11-af3f-45c3-9657-a9695f1f7296No war this year

At least, not between the USA and its NATO 'allies'. The recent turbulence over Greenland has been very instructive. In the short term the prime minister has managed to preserve the UK's position diplomatically, balancing the need to remain close to the USA and not annoying our European partners.

The careful measures to reset the relationship between the UK and the EU have not had to be junked in favour of the US. But this isn't over. The European response to Trump's Greenland demarche was initially confusion, then denial. Finally European NATO was able to 'persuade' Trump that there is a better way of doing business.

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AI logoExecutive Summary — Arctic Security & Environmental Change, 2025
1. Accelerating great-power competition and security strategic focus 
The Arctic has increasingly been defined as a strategic arena for geopolitical competition in 2025. Intelligence assessments and defence leadership statements emphasise that the Arctic is transitioning from a comparatively cooperative region to a theatre of great-power contestation, with Russia, the United States and China intensifying activities and strategic planning in the High North. A recent risk assessment by Danish Defence Intelligence highlights this trend, noting that the region’s importance has grown as ballistic trajectories and missile routes are directly relevant to global defence postures via the High North.
NATO’s top military commander has explicitly stated that the Arctic is now a front line of strategic competition, reflecting rising concerns about allied deterrence, Russia’s military posture and broader security linkages.

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