Articles and analysis

AI logoA Companion Paper to the Black Sea Fleet Series by Robin Ashby. Reseach support by Claude.ai

The Sea of Azov is the smallest of the seas that touch European Russia, and for a decade now the one most completely under one flag. It has one door. Understanding who holds the key tells you most of what you need to know.
I. The Lock
The Kerch Strait is four kilometres wide at its narrowest point, and every vessel bound for Mariupol, Berdyansk, Taganrog or Rostov-on-Don passes beneath the Crimean Bridge or does not pass at all.1 Russia has controlled both shores since the 2014 annexation of Crimea, and built the bridge, completed in 2018 at a cost of $3.7 billion, in defiance of a 2003 treaty intended to leave the strait and the sea itself as shared 'historical internal waters' of Russia and Ukraine.2

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Commentary NW 95537d11-af3f-45c3-9657-a9695f1f7296Dropping the pilot

In the famous Punch cartoon of March 1890, Otto von Bismark is seen leaving the ship (of state) having done so much to bring about the creation of modern Germany. As he leaves, he is watched by a young Kaiser Wilhelm ii. Perhaps the analogy is a little contrived, but dropping Keir Starmer who made Labour electable again, watched by a 'young' Andy Burnham, comes to mind.

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Part One: The Fleet, the War, and the Attrition Campaign

Curated by Robin Ashby, Chair, Eurodefense EU-Russia Observatory

The Inheritance of Sevastopol

Russia's Black Sea Fleet entered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 at the height of its post-Soviet capability. Sevastopol — seized, along with the rest of Crimea, in 2014 — had been transformed in eight years from a leased base operating on borrowed time into a heavily fortified naval complex. New submarines had been commissioned. New corvettes carrying Kalibr cruise missiles had replaced ageing Soviet hulls. Coastal defence batteries covered the approaches. The fleet's air component had been reinforced. By almost any measure, the Black Sea Fleet in early 2022 was the most capable it had been since the Soviet Union's dissolution.
It was also, as events proved, profoundly vulnerable to a form of warfare its commanders had not adequately anticipated.

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