Articles and analysis

AI logoRussia's search for reliable access to the world's oceans has long been shaped by the interaction of geography, climate, and strategic necessity. Much of the country's coastline lies along northern seas that freeze in winter or are distant from major maritime trade routes. As a result, Russian rulers—from the era of Muscovy to the present—have repeatedly sought secure maritime outlets that allow year-round naval activity and access to global commerce.
The pattern across three centuries is consistent: Russia expands toward warm water. Every war, every annexation, every alliance of convenience has this logic somewhere within it. Understanding this imperative helps explain not only Russia's historical expansion but also its contemporary interventions from Syria to Africa.

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Zashchitnyy Kupol: Russia’s Protective Three-Ocean Dome along the Northern Sea Route — Redux. Part of the Northern Fleet's operational roles.

12 March 2026

northern fleet downloadIn 2015 it was reported that Russia had plans to build 13 aerodromes and six cantonments in the Arctic. The string of new and refurbished bases between the AI logo Atlantic and the Pacific via the Arctic Ocean was described by Northern Fleet commander Admiral Nikolay Yevmenov as a “protective ocean dome”.

In late 2019 Vice-Admiral Alexander Moiseyev confirmed that additional S-300 and S-400 systems would be deployed across the Russian Arctic to create a comprehensive anti-aircraft umbrella across the region.

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Nuclear Deterrence

Commentary NW 95537d11-af3f-45c3-9657-a9695f1f7296“A world without nuclear weapons may be a dream but you cannot base a sure defence on dreams. Without far greater trust and confidence between East and West than exists at present, a world without nuclear weapons would be less stable and more dangerous for all of us.”

These words were spoken by Margaret Thatcher on her visit to Moscow on March 30, 1987. We now know that the days of the Soviet Union were numbered. In the post-Cold War period, many hoped for a new era in international relations, and so it seemed for a period. But the increasingly belligerent tone taken by Vladimir Putin has ended that hope. Following the full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Thatcher’s words echo down to us across the years.

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