Articles and analysis

Illegal immigration is probably one of the main security challenges Europe is facing. Never in recent history have so many people wanted to settle in Europe, either because they are threatened in their home countries and they seek asylum, or simply for economic reasons, as they want to enjoy a better life. But can one really talk about a European migration policy, asks Jean Cady ?

Amb. Mariano García Muñoz reports.
First: the new presence, but not real involvement, of the USA in the Middle East (ME).
It seems that the new policy of President Trump towards this region is not to shape it
according to a peace plan that might solve wars and national crisis and to start a nation
building program. The US President and his counsellors have the idea to forge an Arab-
Sunni coalition:
• To fight terrorism from the Islamic State (IS),
• To counter Iranian influence that is damaging the policy of Saudi Arabia
and its allies in the Persian Gulf and elsewhere,
• To negotiate peace between Israel and Palestine.

Islamic State's territorial losses are expected to result in a substantially increased terrorism threat for Europe says Otso Iho, Senior Analyst at Jane's Terrorism and Insurgency Centre, IHS Markit
Key points:
· Daesh (aka the Islamic State) will lose its remaining territory in Iraq and Syria, but is highly likely to transition into a shadow state and underground insurgency, while continuing to undermine security and stability through constant low-level violence and periodic mass-casualty operations, particularly in Iraq.
· For European security, returning foreign fighters and their families will present both immediate and long-term challenges, increasing the terrorism threat on the continent significantly in the ten-year outlook.
· A wider outcome of Daesh's decline is the potential resurgence of existing groups such as Al Qaeda.

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