FIRE FROM THE SEA: RUSSIAN NAVAL LAND-ATTACK MISSILES

Systems, Platforms, Production and Combat Use in Ukraine 2022-2025

 

CONFIDENCE LEVELS USED IN THIS PAPER: [HIGH] Confirmed from multiple open-source/official records. [MEDIUM] Single or fragmentary sourcing; probable but not confirmed. [LOW] Assessed from technical/contextual inference; treat with caution. [ASSESSED] Western/Ukrainian intelligence estimate, unverified.

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Russia's search for reliable access to the world's oceans has long been shaped by the interaction of geography, climate, and strategic necessity. Much of the country's coastline lies along northern seas that freeze in winter or are distant from major maritime trade routes. As a result, Russian rulers—from the era of Muscovy to the present—have repeatedly sought secure maritime outlets that allow year-round naval activity and access to global commerce.
The pattern across three centuries is consistent: Russia expands toward warm water. Every war, every annexation, every alliance of convenience has this logic somewhere within it. Understanding this imperative helps explain not only Russia's historical expansion but also its contemporary interventions from Syria to Africa.

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