A Supporting Paper to the Mind the Gap Series By Robin Ashby, Director General UK Defence Forum; Rapporteur, High North Observatory
The reassertion of strategic competition in the High North has been accompanied by a proliferation of national and institutional Arctic policy documents. Between 2020 and 2026, Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, Norway, Canada, Denmark, the European Union and NATO have all published or substantially updated their Arctic strategic frameworks. This paper surveys those documents, identifies their common threads and significant divergences, and assesses where declared policy aligns with — or falls short of — actual investment and capability. It is intended as a reference companion to the Mind the Gap series rather than a standalone analytical paper. The indigenous dimension of Arctic governance — including the legal arguments around Sami national claims and the application of historical legal precedents to indigenous sovereignty, explored by Joe Fallon in ICE3 of the underlying Vuollai Rahkadus series — lies beyond the security-focused scope of this paper but represents an important parallel body of analysis to which readers with broader Arctic governance interests are directed.
The survey confirms one finding above all others: the gap between strategic aspiration and operational reality is a consistent feature across Western documents, while Russia's strategy — whatever its implementation shortcomings — has been executed with greater consistency and at greater resource intensity than any Western equivalent until very recently.