What are the trajectories of change within the multidimensional relationship between Russia, the US, the European Union and the post-Soviet space? Dr Oliver Gnad considers plausible narratives about how this quadrilateral relationship – and the world – will look like after the end of the next policy cycle ending around the year 2024.
2024 marks not only the end of the next presidential term in Russia but also the end of Donald Trump's second term in office (or the end of the first term of a subsequent incumbent in the White House). By that time we will either see the US and Europe drifting further apart (i.e. US with Europe or the US in Europe) or finding a new transatlantic narrative.
Also, the year 2024 marks the midterm of the EU budgetary cycle (2020-2027) which will heavily reflect the EU's ambition to come to grips with a Common Defence and Security Policy. More importantly, developments within the EU will decide upon the question whether the Union will be able to consolidate itself, whether it will enlarge further (Balkans), whether it will deepen (monetary union, tax union, foreign and defence policy, immigration) or whether it will end up as a two-speed Europe – either by will or force.

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Continuous at sea deterrence was part of a discussion on defence and an independent Scotland held by the U K Defence Forum in 2013. Points made by the speaker and others are again relevant as the subject of Scottish independence returns to political prominence and are reproduced on the next page.

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We mark the passing of those who have served this country on the next page. Contributions from comrades and relatives welcome - email the editor This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

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by Dr Gary Busch (June 2020)

With its dependence on raw materials extraction and their export to fund its defence and international ambitions, as well as meet the needs of its people, the Russian economy has been hit by falling prices globally and the impact of global warming, particularly in the multi-time zone vastness that is Siberia

The first signs of the effects of global warming on the economy were the large numbers of explosions in Siberian mines due to the release of methane gas due to global warming after 2017. An explosion in the Severnaya coal mine, in Vorkuta, left four people dead and twenty-six stranded some eight hundred meters below the surface; another explosion, three days later, killed six rescue workers and condemned to death the miners in the inaccessible shaft. A Russian government commission investigating the disaster said that they would authorise the flooding of the mine to extinguish the methane-induced fire. They agreed to flooding it with water and figured that it would take sixty to eighty days to extinguish.

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A quick guide to understanding the puzzle (EDGE3)

by Edoardo Del Principe MA, with additional material by Arianna Comis MA and Robin Ashby

Contents

Introduction
CSDP Institutional Framework: Agencies and Actors
Key Points in Modern CSDP: Defence Market and Strategies
Active Missions and Operations: EU in Action
European Defence and New Challenges

Introduction

Around 5,000 EU citizens are currently involved in 6 military and 10 non-military CSDP (Common Security and Defence Policy) missions. But what is it, and why is it important?

The CSDP is the best known part of the European foreign policy and also the most discussed because of the objective it has of preserving peace and long term stability in the EU.

CSDP missions had a key role in the last year's political agenda of the Member States with the failing EU NAVFOR MED Op Sophia in the Mediterranean Sea and EUBAM Libya, tackling the refugees crossing crisis.

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By Tatiana Rita de Moraes MA
Given the pressures, challenges, external threats and feelings of insecurity, will the evolution of the European security system, currently moving towards greater integration, eventually lead to the formation of shared defence or even a "European Army"? Is the latter a practical or politically possibility? (Throughout this paper, EU and Europe now mean the 27 member states – MS - of the European Union after the UK has left at the end of 2020)
Over the last 5 years, rapid steps so far involve the establishment of a European Defense Fund; the development of the Capacity Development Plan to define short, medium and long-term priorities; the adjustment of structures, including greater centralisation of information and a command structure for military operations initially non-executive, the Capacity for Planning and Conducting Military Actions; the Coordinated Annual Defense Review with a view to better coordination between countries; the Common Security and Defence Policy (see paper EDGE3 An introduction to CSDP by Edoardo del Principe) and, finally, the establishment of Permanent Structured Cooperation.

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The COVID-19 pandemic, which has rocked the world, could prove to be one of those major upheavals capable of changing the face of the planet. Time alone will tell. At the very least, the pandemic raises issues with regard to the principles of solidarity, human dignity, freedom, democracy, rule of law and peace that are the founding values of the European Union.

The measures suggested here are designed to attenuate the impact of economic recession, while at the same time optimising defence and security capacities without encroaching on individual Member State's sovereignty.

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Russia has begun crew training for its new S-350 SAM (Surface to Air Missile) system, reports Strategy magazine. S-350 is a mobile, medium range missile system that replaces the S-300PS/PT system which entered service in the early 1980s and the Buk M1/2 which entered service in the 1990s. The S-350 is, in effect, "S-400 Lite". In other words a less expensive SAM system with many S-400 capabilities but not the billion dollar per battery price. S-350 also benefitted from a joint Russia-South Korea effort to develop a new air defense system. That effort eventually fell apart but not before each nation went on their way with valuable tech they had acquired from the other.

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