Hardly a day goes by now without a mention in the anglosphere media about the Russian mercenary group Wagner in relation to the Kremlin's war against Ukraine, writes Euan Grant and Jose Alberto Pereira . Yevgeny Prigozhin, "Putin's Chef" and at least the public face of the group has become increasingly vocal in urging a more forceful prosecution of the war, most recently castigating Duma members for alleged procrastination in passing legislation for such reenergizing. There have been a number of commentators suggesting the group – it is likely now an umbrella organisation for a range of companies and activities – is a praetorian guard against a coup. Thes observers believe these arguments are exaggerated and is inclined to share Mark Galeotti's belief that the primary protector of Putin is likely to be the Presidential Guard.
However, internally in Russia, and externally in Ukraine, Wagner plays a vital role in a divide and rule strategy, avoiding reliance on Kadyrov and his Chechens as auxiliaries outside the formal military command chain. Kadyrov's organisations can be seen as the equivalent of Wagner within Russia and its immediate neighbours, with the long-term roles of the latter being concentrated in the Middle East and North Africa, but particularly in the rest of Africa – especially the Sahel – and, lest we forget, South America centred on Venezuela and potentially still Cuba.
In 2019, after the first very successful Russia-Africa Summit, President Putin declared that Africa was one of Moscow's foreign policy priorities, writes Olivier Guitta. With its charm offensive in Africa, Moscow had de facto bought votes at the United Nations that proved crucial in particular since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. For proof of the critical importance of Africa, despite having suffered massive human losses and military defeats in Ukraine, Russia and its private military company Wagner are not removing any assets from the continent.
"To know your enemy, you must become your enemy" – Sun Tzu, The Art of War