Back to the Future : The NATO Summit 2014

The NATO Summit being held in Wales on 4th – 5th September is the first to be held in the UK since 1990, reflects Nick Watts. The 1990 Summit took place in the light of the recent fall of the Berlin wall. It marked the end of what many saw as the defining reason for the existence of the Alliance; the Cold War. The 2014 Summit may be the one which marks the beginning of a new Cold War.
The immediacy of the threat to Europe posed by a resurgent Russia, and the more amorphous threat to 'The West' posed by the rise of Islamic State fighters, will form two of the three pillars of this event. The third pillar will be to mark the conclusion of the campaign in Afghanistan, and the transition to a new supporting mission there.

At an event held at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London to mark the NATO summit remarks by senior UK and NATO commanders, as well as by the UK Secretary for Defence, left no doubt that the Alliance now views Russia as a Threat. The question the Summit must address is how to respond to this threat in a way that reassures those NATO members who share borders with Russia.

The biggest challenge is going to be political will. Many in central and Eastern Europe do not feel directly threatened by Russia, whereas the Baltic Republics and Poland do. At a time of continuing austerity many politicians will be wary of making commitments which will have price tags attached, in the form of undertakings to increase defence spending.
So far the Alliances response has been to propose the establishment of a rapid reaction capability. Something which existed in the Cold War days in the guise of the Allied Command Europe (ACE) Mobile Force. This was a 'fire brigade' force designed to be sent to any part of the Alliance's borders which were threatened. After the end of the Cold War, this force became the NATO Response Force – but the need for urgency was lost. Recent developments in Ukraine have shown that the Russian military can generate forces quickly close to the borders of a country as was originally seen in the 2008 Georgian / South Ossetian campaign.

The UK will lead the way along with other allies in establishing a Joint Expeditionary Force. The Secretary of State noted that a Letter of Intent would be signed between the UK, Estonia, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania the Netherlands and Norway, to restore the Alliance's contingent capability. The 'need for speed' will be a way of signalling to Russia that NATO will check any moves that it might make in the future on the borders of NATO. Alliance Member States have the support of the Article 5 declaration, but the Baltic States with sizeable Russian minorities will feel reassured that future coercive actions by Russia can be dealt with swiftly.

Alongside the Readiness Action Plan which will be formally initiated at the Summit will be a renewed call for investment in defence expenditure. Alliance Member States have been encouraged to commit to a 2% of GDP level of expenditure on defence. Many do not do so. This will be the most politically charged element of the Summit. Repeated calls by senior US politicians for more expenditure by European partners were echoed in remarks made by the UK Secretary of State for Defence. "We can't expect US taxpayers to go on picking up the cheque to prioritise [European] social welfare spending when the threats are on our doorstep."

The Alliance will use the Summit to mark the conclusion of the Afghanistan campaign. NATO's mission will transition in January 2015 to 'Resolute Support' designed to ensure that the gains achieved by the ISAF campaign are not lost. This will be an advisory and assistance mission and is intended to last 10 years. 12,000 people will be involved including an 80 strong UK team which will be running the Afghan Officer Academy which will train and mentor a new generation of leaders for the Afghan National Army (ANA). In addition a 30 strong UK team will be working with the Afghan National Security Force (ANSF) to consolidate progress in the security field.

The Summit will also have to consider how best to respond to the threat posed by the rise of Islamist fighters. This problem has spread rapidly and the Summit is an opportunity to review progress and decide on the best way to counter it. Unlike the Russian threat the ISIS 'Islamic State' is a self-described group of fighters who control an area of ground, but which has no 'centre of gravity.' Thus strikes against command centres and infrastructure are not possible.

This represents a new manifestation of 'war among the people' a form of asymmetric warfare. The Alliance may take a view that this problem is not one which threatens NATO Member States, not a view which will be shared by Turkey. This may result in a political fudge which will result in some countries, such as the US, taking unilateral action. It might also be that a sub-group of countries such as the US and Turkey step up direct measures, whilst others play a supporting role.

The nature of a 28 nation Alliance means that where its direct interests are threatened it will respond, such as in the case with Russia. Where there is a more amorphous threat, such as with the Islamic State, the response will be patchy. The challenge for the leaders of the Alliance in the next two days is to show that NATO is still in business and that it has something to contribute in an increasingly insecure world.

Nick watts is the Deputy Director General of the U K Defence Forum